CHINA, JAPAN: EAST CHINA SEA DISPUTES ARISE AGAIN

Summary
Japan signaled on Feb. 22 that it may take a dispute with China over an East China Sea gas field to an international maritime court. Disputes between the two countries over resources in the East China Sea have been simmering for decades, and the latest warning by Japan may threaten China’s longstanding dominance over its maritime territory.

Analysis

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirofumi Hirano (above image, left) said his country may go to an international tribunal if Beijing begins producing natural gas in the disputed Chunxiao Gas Field. Territory disputes over the East China Sea have existed for decades, with Japan proposing to determine its territory through the "median line" demarcation principle, and China insisting it has rights to marine resources east of that proposed line.

China claims the Chunxiao Gas Field, located 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) inside the Chinese side of the Japan-proposed median line, is squarely within its sovereignty, but Japan says the tap of this field stretches into the disputed boundary. A 2008 principled consensus on the East China Sea reached by the two countries ruled that both sides could share the potential gas resource while leaving undecided the critical issues of the exact demarcation line and  exploration rights of existing fields. The accord stemmed from the fact that Beijing had already built a drilling platform over Chunxiao, and is now ready to begin extraction.

Following a short period of eased tension after the agreement, the issue was brought up again this year by Japan's newly elected Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government. On Jan. 19, Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada, during the 4th Forum for East Asia-Latin America Cooperation, warned that countermeasures would be taken against China if Beijing explored the Chunxiao field. Beijing responded by saying that China holds sovereign rights to Chunxiao, but welcomed Japan to participate in the development.

Tokyo's latest move demonstrates the government’s intention to uphold its claim of sovereignty while holding a solid stake against Beijing over a key area of geopolitical interest. This despite claims by the DPJ that it is attempting to warm its relations with China and other neighboring countries. This has particularly been the case since support for the DPJ started  plummeting in the face of July elections for its House of Councillors.

However, Tokyo’s threats to appeal to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea may endanger Beijing’s longstanding stance over its maritime territory, as the procedure may not only subject Beijing to the international legal framework, but also have a ripple effect that impacts China's disputed territories with other countries.

Beijing has long claimed sovereignty over contested maritime territories with several neighboring countries -- including Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia -- for the purpose of both sovereignty and abundant natural resources. The evolution of China’s rapid economic development and international status over the past several years has significantly accelerated the process of China reasserting its authority.

Beijing’s strategy has been to claim territory through preemptive natural resource exploration projects -- as it did in the East China Sea and previous joint venture projects with the Philippines and Vietnam several years earlier -- or conduct military activities in the South China Sea, without interference from international regulation, such as the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Seas. It recently established a Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs under its foreign ministry to enhance the capabilities and number of patrols over claimed territory, and passed a law to better protect islands, which drew close attention among those contesting territory.

The current threat from Japan, despite being a merely rhetorical statement so far, may lead to a re-clarification of boundaries by international organizations, and would greatly undermine Beijing’s own strategy over its sea territory.

Copyright 2010 Stratfor.